Thursday, February 14, 2008

General Philosophy

I believe that any logical beginning poker player should have one general philosophy: be cautious and wait for the big hand.

You shouldn't get caught up in making perfect decisions at a small stakes online poker table. There's no need for a great call with a marginal hand, a great bluff with a weak hand or a great lay down with a great hand. Generally speaking, you should make calls with a decent hand and see what happens on the next card, fold your weak hands and re-raise or call with a great hand. This is simply because the play is too erratic and most of your opponents won't really know what you're trying to do when you construct that great bluff, and they typically bet when they get a piece of the flop. All you can do is ensure that your piece of the flop has a better kicker.

So that takes care of being cautious, which most people think is the hard part. Not to me. Being cautious is the easy part. The decisions are simple as long as you have patience. Here's an example small stakes online hand that may seem like a tough decision or even an easy decision (to make the wrong play). Of course, you don't know your opponents hands while you're playing, but that doesn't matter. I'll let you know what everyone is thinking, and to do that you must know their cards.

Situation: $.25/.50 cash game
Opponent A likes to come over the top with draws and be aggressive.
Opponent B likes to makes calls with draws and any pair.
Me ($23): Ks7s (king of spades, seven of spades)
Opponent A ($50): 99
Opponent B ($19): A2o

Opponent A, in first position, limps in.
Opponent B, in the small blind, limps in.
Me, in the big blind, check.
Everyone else has folded.

The flop: Ad 7c 2d

I think:
You are first to act. You know people love to limp in with any ace in small stakes online poker, but you've hit your seven. People also love to limp with KJ, QJ, QT, K9, any pocket pair below ten. A is aggressive, so if you check he'll bet and you won't have a clue what he has. So bet the minimum. Aggressive small stakes online poker players see a come-over-the-top play (COTT or re-raise) as a very strong and great way to bluff. This also means they don't do it every hand, that's why it's called "making a play." The odds are that Player A will call with the logic, "that's only 50 cents" no matter what he has. You don't care about his call. I'd assume my seven beats whatever he has, and more than 50 percent of the time I'll be right, so I'll make that play every time. You know B will only call with some sort of something. It may be a 2, it may be a pair. But he'll have something if he calls.
I act:
Bet .50 at a 1.50 pot (1/3 of pot or "feeler bet"). Pot is now $2.00.

A Thinks:
LOL. Only 50 cents. I'll call.
A acts:
Calls .50 at 2.00 pot (call 1/4 of pot). Pot is now $2.50

B Thinks:
WOW TWO THINGS ON THE BOARD MATCH THE TWO THINGS I HAVE!!!
B Acts:
Re-raises the minimum possible amount because he's too lazy and dumb to think so he just clicks the re-raise button to show off his great hand (Re-raise to $1.00). Pot is now $3.50.

I think:
Moron. The pot is $3.50 and I only have to put in .50 to call. That's 7-1 odds. That's great odds. However, you know that B has more than just something because he re-raised. So at bare minimum, he has an ace. So, assuming he has an ace, you will need a seven or a king to win this. That's 3 outs for the king and 2 outs for the seven = 5 outs. You've seen 5 cards thus far out of 52. 47 left. You have 5 outs, so 42 cards are no good. 42/5 or about 8-1. Since online players, specifically player B, like to simply make calls, and you are smart enough to fold when you don't hit those odds are good enough to make this call. However, the player right after you likes to make plays. He didn't take his first opportunity to make a play, and he's definitely calling, so there are several cards you really don't want to see on the turn or river, even if he doesn't make a play here. JUST FOLD - your seven is no good and Player A may want to do something crazy at some point. If it were one-on-one against Player B I would call. Hell, I would probably even if there was a single spade on the board or some gut shot straight draw, given the great implied odds for these types of players when you hit a flush or straight.
I act:
You fold.

Player A thinks:
Only .50 again. Hell yeah.
Player A acts:
He calls .50 at a 3.50 (7-1 odds). Pot is now $4.00

The turn: (Ad 7c 2d) 8h

I think:
Good.

Player A thinks:
I haven't done anything crazy yet. If he comes over the top, I know he has a really good hand. I'll bet $2 and maybe he'll fold. Also I have 99, which is AWESOME! ONLY ONE OVER!

Player A acts:
Bets $2 at a $4 pot (1/2 the pot). Pot is now $6.

Player B thinks:
I have an ace and a two, but that bet is too big to re-raise. I'll call.
Player B acts:
Calls $2 for a $6 pot (3:1 odds). Pot is now $8.

The River: (Ad 7c 2d 8h) Kc

I Think:
Hmmm wonder if I'd be good here. Don't care.

Player A thinks:
I'm crazy as hell. I'll bet the pot.
Player A acts:
Bets $8 at an $8 pot (1/1 at the pot). Pot is now $16.

Player B thinks:
I have an ace AND a two. I'm a little scared, but of course I'll call.
Player B acts:
Calls $8 for a $16 pot (2:1 odds). Wins $24.

Player B wins with 2 pair.
I think:
I gotta check this hand history.
I act:
Check the hand history and write everything down that you just saw.

Player A thinks:
F*** this. I'm leaving.
Player A acts:
Leaves table. Empty seat.

Player B thinks:
I'm good at poker.
Player B acts:
Stays and loses most of his stack to you.

A hand like this is very typical for me. I like to make my money when I flop a great hand. Don't get me wrong, I have to make some tough calls when I'm pretty sure I'm ahead and a lot of money is at stake. I counter this by only going into tables with 25 times the small blind plus the big blind (e.g. at a .25/.50 game, that's .75*25 = 18.75). That way, in the rare case that I make a bad call for a lot of money, it hedges the overall affect. I never go on tilt. I'm always on my game. Tilt can come at a great cost, but we'll talk about that later.

The important things to take from this hand are as follows:
1) I did my homework and knew what type of player each was, in general.
2) I accomplished all of my goals at the cheapest possible price. If I would have bet $1.00, the same conclusions could have been made.
3) I didn't fall in love with middle pair, and I knew how to fold it.
4) I wasn't excited about K-7-suited to begin with.
5) I would have liked Player A to stay. Those guys give out the most money to a player like me.
6) I checked hand history after the play because both players had to show their cards. I now know how they think in this given situation and can write it in their notes.

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