Dumb Call II: It's OK when I Do It

The names have been changed, but here is a play that recently occurred in which I felt my chances of winning the tournament increased enough when winning this hand to justify the losses incurred. I figured I was about 28% (~2.5:1) to win the hand when I made the call. With the 400 I had already limped with, it gave me decent straight odds. There are a few key differences here between my call and the one described in the previous post that push me to make this tough call:

1) There are three players in the pot (one significantly small stacked);
2) The small stacked player, Larry, has significant pressure to move all in with a hand worse than mine, so there are increased chances I'm actually favored;
3) The somewhat larger stacked player has an M of 6. He, too, is far more compelled to make a move, so again there are increased chances I'm actually favored;
4) It only costs me less than a third of my stack to make a big move in the tourney;
5) I can still play "normal" poker if I lose. I'm not completely crippled afterward. In the other example, Steel made a play for his tournament life.

PokerStars Tournament, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/02/18 - 02:03:28 (ET)
Table 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Larry (1780 in chips)
Seat 2: 845(5170 in chips)
Seat 3: Steel (10140 in chips)
Seat 4: JMAR (4234 in chips)
Seat 5: dark (8066 in chips)
Seat 6: heiff (21154 in chips)
Seat 7: ME (14845 in chips)
Seat 8: High (3300 in chips)
Seat 9: furry (4975 in chips)
Larry: posts the ante 25
845: posts the ante 25
Steel: posts the ante 25
JMAR: posts the ante 25
dark: posts the ante 25
heiff: posts the ante 25
ME: posts the ante 25
High: posts the ante 25
furry: posts the ante 25
dark: posts small blind 200
heiff: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to [Qc Kc]
ME: calls 400
High: folds
furry: folds
Larry: raises 1355 to 1755 and is all-in
845: folds
Steel: folds
JMAR: raises 2454 to 4209 and is all-in
darknes87: folds
heiffinator: folds
ME: calls 3809
*** FLOP *** [As Th Qs]
*** TURN *** [As Th Qs] [4d]
*** RIVER *** [As Th Qs 4d] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ME: shows [Qc Kc] (a pair of Queens)
JMAR: shows [Ac Js] (a pair of Aces)
JMAR collected 4908 from side pot
Larry: shows [Ks Jd] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
Larry collected 6090 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10998 Main pot 6090. Side pot 4908. | Rake 0
Board [As Th Qs 4d 9s]
Seat 1: Larry showed [Ks Jd] and won (6090) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 2: 845 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Steel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: JMAR (button) showed [Ac Js] and won (4908) with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: darknes87 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: heiffinator (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: ME showed [Qc Kc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: High folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: furry folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Now, let's see if my play was correct (Assuming my original limp in was correct (which it was)).
I had to call 1355 to win a possible 6090 against 2 players. With KQs against AJo and KJo, I am 34.59%** to win (or 2 to 1). 6090/1355= 4.5. I had awesome odds and made a good call for the main pot. However, I also have to consider the side pot with JMAR. Against AJo, I'm 42.56% to win. My play was technically calling 2454 extra to win the 4908 side pot. My expected earning from this play is:

.3459*6090 = 2107
PLUS
.4256*4908 = 2089
for a total expected earning of 4196.

My bet was for a total of 3809 (2454+1355 or JMAR's stack minus my original 400, so it makes sense). Therefore, my play was profitable (4196 gain beats a 3809 expected loss) and thus technically correct. Who knew? (I didn't)

Note: Notice how the original limp-in changes everything. If you add the 400 that was dead money as far as this analysis was concerned, my bet was for a total of 4209. The loss would then outweigh the gain. So, the technically "correct" play would have been to fold immediately had I known what cards my opponents were holding. In addition, if anticipating a call from both opponents, an immediate all-in move would have been technically incorrect.

**All winning percentages obtained from CardPlayer.com's Poker Odds Calculator: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

PS: I just realized that you may be wondering why I chose 28% when I was sitting there during the hand. Basically, all I did was take 33% and shave a little bit off since I assumed I wasn't the favorite here. It's actually the low end guess for a situation such as this, and if I would have used it instead of the actual winning percentage for the main pot, then I would still have decent odds to make the call. With the knowledge that I'm generally a pessimist about these types of situations, I would then realize that 28% is probably a lowball guess and can justify making that call. Looking back, I'm satisfied with my estimations during the hand and feel I made the right call.

Side note:
My original assumption for what was taking place went something like this...

When I first saw the all-in move by the very short stack, I assumed A-x, so we'll call it A5s (give him that extra flush chance for 2%). Short stacks like this need to make a play and they tend to especially put the pressure on themselves just before the big blind. Typically, any good hand such as QT, KJ or AX will work for them and could justify the all-in move as the correct play (honestly, at that point for Larry, any two cards could have worked). I feel assuming AX is the best way to hedge the bet. When another less-short-stacked player made the re-raise for the rest of his chips, I figured one of two things was occurring:
1) He doesn't want me to call, so he must have a medium pair or AQ or something;
2) He has a good hand and wants double up (almost triple). Here, I will assume JJ, QQ, KK, AA or AK.

A good way to hedge your bet in this situation is to go ahead and assume a hand like 99. If you judged the situation correctly, the winning percentages go something like this and still lead to the correct play:

A5s: 29.54%
99: 37.45%
KQs (me): 32.56%

(if Larry has some random hand in this situation, such as JTs, you actually become the favorite)